Reports about the death of Canada's immigration consensus have arguably been exaggerated. But there are warning signs — both for the public's attitude toward immigration and for the Trudeau government's legacy.

The clearest evidence that the consensus is in some danger can be found in polling conducted by the Environics Institute. For 50 years, Environics has been asking Canadians whether they agree or disagree with the statement that "overall there is too much immigration in Canada."

For nearly 25 years, starting in the late 1990s, a majority of Canadians disagreed with that statement. In 2022, the gap was particularly wide — 69 per cent disagreed, just 27 per cent agreed.

But when Environics asked again in 2023, the numbers had shifted markedly — just 51 per cent disagreed and 44 per cent agreed. And the latest round of polling shows that opinion has fully flipped, with 58 per cent now agreeing that there is too much immigration and just 36 per cent disagreeing.